The OECD predicts acceleration in the global economy and a slowdown in the domestic Russian economy. The decline in household incomes and the contraction of consumer demand may become an additional brake on the recovery of the Russian economy.
According to Rosstat, the economic downturn in Russia in 2020 amounted to 3.1% – significantly better than expected.
The Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Alexey Zabotkin emphasized that the potential economic growth rates do not depend on monetary policy, they are influenced by demography, labor force, and the efficiency of institutions.
The Russian economy continues to lose its attractiveness in the eyes of large transnational businesses as consumers become poorer and the government continues the sanctions war with the West.
The Washington Institute of International Finance (IIF) sharply improved its forecast for the Russian economy. Its experts revised estimates of the fall in GDP in 2020 from minus 4.8% to 3.6%.
Net capital outflow from Russia by the private sector by the end of 2020 increased 2.2 times compared to the same period last year and amounted to $47.8 billion.
The decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Russian Federation in January-September 2020 amounted to about 80%, according to the report of the World Bank (WB).
Net capital outflow from Russia since the beginning of the year has approached $48 billion.
The bill on a simplified procedure for issuing residence permits (residence permits) in the Russian Federation (the so-called “golden visas”) to foreign investors has been approved by the authorities concerned, and the procedure for its adoption will be launched in the near future.
Inflation in Russia in December 2020, according to preliminary data, accelerated to 0.8% and amounted to 4.9% at the end of the year.
According to experts, growth this year will be moderate, and in 2022 it will be up to 3%.
Russia's extremely conservative spending in 2021 will hamper economic recovery from the pandemic.
The fall in Russia's GDP in Q3 2020 was not 3.6%, but 3.4%. Rosstat improved its assessment of the
state of the economy after clarifying the reporting of enterprises and the assessment of the banking
sector from the Bank of Russia.
The most popular investment instruments for Russian citizens are savings accounts in banks, foreign
currency, real estate, life insurance and cryptocurrencies.
The real disposable income of Russians in the third quarter fell by almost 5% after a record drop of
8.4% in the second, Rosstat reported.
In September 2020, the monthly increase in consumer prices (as estimated seasonally adjusted) decreased to 0.25% compared to 0.38% in August, according to the next release of the information and analytical commentary “Dynamics of consumer prices”.
Consumer demand in the first seven months of 2020 in Russia decreased due to the coronavirus pandemic by an average of 6.7% relative to the result of January-July 2019.
Net capital outflow in January-August 2020 increased 1.7 times compared to the data for the same period last year – from $20 billion to $34.8 billion.
The international rating agency S&P has approved a long-term rating of Russia for liabilities in foreign currency at BBB- with a stable outlook.
The unemployment rate in Russian regions at the end of Q2 2020 increased by an average of 30% compared to the same period last year, writes Kommersant, citing Rosstat.
