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Главная \ News \ Economists called the factor of the slowdown in the Russian economy after the crisis

Economists called the factor of the slowdown in the Russian economy after the crisis

Russia's extremely conservative spending in 2021 will hamper economic recovery from the pandemic.

Cutting costs will take away from GDP up to 1% growth next year, according to Oxford Economics. In

Russia, government spending on overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis caused

by it in 2020 lagged behind the leading countries of the world, and in 2021-2023, large-scale support for

economic growth through government spending is not expected. Alfa Bank economists also pointed out

last week that the planned tightening of fiscal policy is a factor for cautious assessments of the

prospects for economic growth in Russia in 2021: the bank's forecast is 2.5% growth next year,

compared with the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of 3.3%.

The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade reported that the forecast of the socio-economic

development of Russia for 2021–2023 takes into account the reduction in budget spending next year.

The transition to fiscal consolidation could restrain the recovery pace of the Russian economy after the

pandemic crisis.

The chosen budgetary strategy will not allow to stimulate a faster recovery in the most affected sectors

of the economy and thus quickly overcome the consequences of the 2020 crisis. The government plans

to cut nominal budget spending by 5% in 2021, or by 1.1 trillion rubles. At the same time, an increase in

non-oil tax collections will give the budget an additional 1 trillion rubles next year, including about 500

billion rubles from the end of the tax break announced this year.

Russia's GDP has been contracting (quarter-on-quarter at constant prices) since mid-2019, in line with

the technical definition of a recession. Recovery growth should begin in 2021, which will be

superimposed by budget cuts. Economic growth can be supported by the fact that the spending of the

budgetary system under the section “National Economy” in 2021 will remain at the increased level of

2020 (5.1% of GDP). Expenditures of the economic bloc have the highest fiscal multiplier during normal

growth; it follows from the estimates of the Bank of Russia.

Source: www.rbc.ru

News
The growth rate of prosperity in Russia over the past two years has exceeded the world average, analysts from the Boston Consulting Group said.
The authorities admitted that they could not keep inflation within 4%. It will be possible to return to this target indicator only in the second half of 2022, according to the analytical commentary of the Central Bank.
The OECD predicts acceleration in the global economy and a slowdown in the domestic Russian economy. The decline in household incomes and the contraction of consumer demand may become an additional brake on the recovery of the Russian economy.
According to Rosstat, the economic downturn in Russia in 2020 amounted to 3.1% – significantly better than expected.
The Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Alexey Zabotkin emphasized that the potential economic growth rates do not depend on monetary policy, they are influenced by demography, labor force, and the efficiency of institutions.
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