In September 2020, the monthly increase in consumer prices (as estimated seasonally adjusted) decreased to 0.25% compared to 0.38% in August, according to the next release of the information and analytical commentary “Dynamics of consumer prices”.
The monthly increase in food prices has decreased, reflecting the high saturation of the market; prices for services have remained practically unchanged. At the same time, the rate of rise in prices for non-food products continued to rise, including under the influence of the weakening ruble.
Annual inflation increased by 0.09 p.p. to 3.67%, mainly due to an increase in prices for non-food products, imported or with a noticeable import component in the price. The annual rate of rise in the cost of services decreased, returning to the July level, in part due to the implementation by universities of the recommendations of the Russian Ministry of Education and Science to maintain tuition fees at the last year's level. Annual food inflation increased slightly due to base effects.
According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will be 3.7-4.2% in 2020, 3.5-4.0% in 2021, and will be close to 4% in the future.