The OECD predicts acceleration in the global economy and a slowdown in the domestic Russian economy. The decline in household incomes and the contraction of consumer demand may become an additional brake on the recovery of the Russian economy. Among the many countries that are included in the reviews of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Russia is one of the last in terms of the minimum wage. The salary minimum is lower than the Russians only in Mexico and Brazil.
OECD analysts have improved forecasts for economic growth for almost all countries except Russia. Global GDP growth is now expected to be 5.6% in 2021 and 4% next year. The new forecast is noticeably better than the previous one, which the organization presented in December. Then the OECD expected an increase in global GDP of 4.2% this year and 3.7% next.
The new study emphasizes that the rate of recovery will depend on the rate of vaccination of the population and the prospects for the spread of new strains. Global production is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021. However, this will only happen if vaccination is accelerated and better coordinated.
Economic incentives should come after mass vaccination programs, analysts advise. “Incentives without vaccination will not be effective, since consumers will still not be able to go out and spend money on shopping, travel and other things”, they note. The improved forecasts for global growth are associated with the launch of a massive $1.9 trillion stimulus package by the United States, which will have an impact on other countries. “This will not only spur the US economy, but it will also contribute to global growth by increasing demand in the States and from the US around the rest of the world”, the organization said.
Experts revised the prospects of the Russian economy for 2021 for the worse. This year, the Russian economy will recover three quarters of the lost GDP, but it will continue to lag behind the world, according to OECD analysts. GDP growth in Russia is expected to be only 2.7% (0.1% less than in December). Despite the rise in oil prices to levels in January last year, the recovery in Russia will be perhaps the slowest among all the countries studied by the OECD. The indicator is worse – growth by 2.6% – the organization predicts only Saudi Arabia.
From world growth – by 5.6% – the Russian economy will lag 2 times, from the United States (6.5%) – 2.4 times, and from China (7.8%) – almost three times.
According to the OECD surveys, Russia is distinguished not only by low growth rates, but also by one of the lowest minimum wages in the world. The minimum hourly wage in Russia today is about $2.40 at constant purchasing power parity (PPP) prices. Below the Russians from the countries studied by the OECD, the minimum wages are only for Brazilians ($2.1 per hour) and Mexicans ($1.2). For comparison: in Colombia, the minimum hourly wage is $2.7.The lag, for example, from Turkey already looks very significant: in this country, the minimum hourly wage is $6.7.
According to the OECD, developed countries are among the leaders in terms of minimum wages. The highest minimum wage is received by workers in Australia – here the hourly wage rate is $12.6. The minimum wages for residents of France and Germany are slightly lower – $12.1 and $11.8 per hour, respectively. The fourth and fifth places in the leaders are occupied by the Netherlands with a minimum hourly rate of $11 and Great Britain with $10.5 per hour.
As a reminder, from January 1 in Russia, the minimum wage (minimum wage) is 12.7 thousand rubles, while the value of the subsistence minimum is 11.6 thousand rubles.
The minimum wage in the Russian Federation is formed primarily from the government's idea of the standard of living, since it determines the size of social benefits, unemployment payments, and sick leave payments, experts from NG explain. “The low level of minimum wages is associated with the large role that the state plays in the Russian economy, as well as with a strong social bias, a propensity to subsidize, to subsidies and other types of assistance to citizens, the amount of which is calculated, including on the basis of the minimum wage”, - notes the member of the general council of “Business Russia” Alim Bishenov.
Affects the minimum wage and low labor productivity. “In Russia, it is 2-3 times lower than in Europe”, the expert notes, believing that the state could increase the average wage by creating more efficient jobs and training personnel. “But in the presence of natural rent, all these good ideas are relegated to the second and third plans. That is, the raw materials orientation of the economy determines the low average level of wages”, says Bishenov.
The lag in the parameters of the minimum wage in comparison with other countries looks ugly, says Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at the analytical center Alpari. In a global sense, this is a political recognition of the existence of a poor population and a rather low standard of living.