The real disposable income of Russians in the third quarter fell by almost 5% after a record drop of
8.4% in the second, Rosstat reported. According to experts, the expected 3% decrease in income for
the year may be exceeded. Real disposable cash income of the population in Q3 2020 decreased by
4.8% compared to the same period last year, according to Rosstat data.
The estimate of the drop in the indicator for Q2, which was the first wave of COVID-19 and the self-
isolation regime of the population, deteriorated from a record 8% to 8.4% in annual terms. The last time
the real disposable income of Russians fell more strongly in 1999: then, at the end of the year, the
decline was 12.3%. The data for April-June has been revised in connection with the correction of the
information on the balance of payments received by Rosstat from the Central Bank.
Rosstat also downgraded its estimate of real disposable income for Q1 2020 According to the revised
data, they increased by 0.7% instead of 1.2% according to the previous estimate. In total, according to
the latest data from Rosstat, in January-September 2020, the real disposable income of Russians
decreased by 4.3%.
The real disposable cash income of the population is cash income minus mandatory payments (taxes
and fees, interest on loans, etc.), adjusted for inflation. In Q3 2020, monetary incomes per capita on
average amounted to 35,000 rubles.
The government in the official forecast of socio-economic development (does not take into account the
second wave of COVID-19) expects that the real disposable income of the population will decrease by
3% by the end of the year, and next year will grow by 3% and will maintain positive dynamics above 2%
in 2022-2023 years.
The government's forecast is overly ambitious given the fact that in Q4 2020, new partial quarantine
restrictions due to the continuation of the pandemic will put negative pressure on the monetary incomes
of Russians, believes Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. According to her estimates, the
decline in real disposable income of the population by the end of the current year will be about 5% in